In Northern Ireland most people, politically, fall into one of two camps... they're Unionists or they're not. Unionism has been in trouble for quite a while with the largest party, the DUP in decline. Ever since brexit reared its ugly head things have got a lot worse.
As I see it there are two fundamental problems right now.
In the run up to the brexit referendum, what remain campaigners discovered is just how challenging is it to sell everything staying more or less the same. The best campaign tactic was to talk about how much worse everything could be, and this was easily dismissed as "project fear". Many unionists recognise they have the same dilemma. Ultimately their pro-union message is one of maintaining the status quo and so, perhaps inevitably, there's a reliance on fear of the 'other'.
The other problem is unionism has come to mean conservative. I find this strange because, looking at the DUP policy document a few years ago I found lots of progressive social policy. It was a far cry from the rhetoric we see today and clear the DUP was, perhaps until very recently, much broader in policy approach than one might expect.
I subscribe to the idea that politics is not about left v right, whatever those terms even mean... it's about progressive vs regressive.
The DUP have become very much a regressive party and as the largest mainstream unionist political party they've dragged the idea of unionism into a regressive position.
Northern Ireland overall voted remain in the brexit referendum but the DUP campaigned for leave and got into bed with the tories to support leave.
Now we have the endless whinging about the consequences of the Northern Ireland Protocol from many unionist politicians, despite the fact it seemed obvious to everyone who paid any attention this was the only viable option.
I'm a fan of unions. I like trade unions. I like the European Union. I like the United Kingdom. No union is perfect; you can always move towards doing things better, but I do believe we're stronger together.... to quote some advert or other.
Unionists in Northern Ireland are failing to make the case for the political union. They're increasingly making a case against it. The more the bluster and noise aimed at the consequences of their own campaigning is matched only by their inability to offer any alternative, the less viable their arguments appear.
I don't think, for a moment, those who are unionists will suddenly vote for a republican party. However it's clear the DUP have alienated many of their voters. As a result the unionist vote will be fragmented, the DUP will lose the majority status they've enjoyed and Sinn Fein will become the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Unionism, if it's to have a viable political future, needs to progress. The old "Ulster says NO!" is very much still present in the current day DUP. The problem is "NO" is easy. You don't need to listen, engage, think, and you don't need to come up with any better options. You just stick your fingers in your ears, shout no and ruin everything for everyone else.
I don't believe there's anything inherently conservative about the union. Until unionists can leave behind their increasingly far right, regressive and even hateful posturing, they run a very real risk of political irrelevance.
